Once the EU’s policy towards Minsk has changed, instead of increasing their popularity in the European capitals, leaders of the Belarusian opposition need to focus on winning the sympathy of Belarusians. Under the pressure of the West, Lukashenka should come to terms with the opposition, which will be given access to the parliament and local governments, in exchange for certain concessions in favor of the authorities.

The Belarusian political scene is fragmented. It is difficult to assess the strength of individual organizations, as the country is ruled by a totalitarian regime. No opposition representatives are present in executive authorities or the parliament, or even in the local governments that enjoy very limited decision making freedoms.

Opposition organizations manifest their political programs mainly during rare street demonstrations, the social impact of which remains very limited. People who are not tied with the opposition take no interest in such rallies whatsoever. No reliable data is available that would determine the number of members of individual organizations. However, the total number of all organization members equals as little as a few thousand.

The potential of a given organization is best indicated by its presence in the media and by its international contacts. In other words, those organizations that journalists and foreigners consider important seem to be most influential. 

By adopting this highly imprecise criterion, which is the only one that may be applied in the Belarusian context, the following three major opposition parties may be distinguished: the Belarusian National Front (BNF), the United Civil Party (AGP) and the Belarusian Communist Party (PKB). The recently established and still officially unregistered Belarusian Christian Democracy (BChD) and the Young Front Youth Organization are entities which are considered to be of lesser potential.

The complete text can be downloaded  here in English and in Belarusian.

Yuri Drakakhrust – born in 1960 in Khabarovsk, a graduate of the National Belarusian University, at the faculty of mechanics and mathematics, a PhD in science. He worked in the Institute of Mathematics and Economy at the Belarusian National Academy of Science, in the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Research. He is one of the founders of the Belarusian National Front (BNF). In the years 1991 – 2000 he worked as a Radio Svoboda correspondent (Russia Department, Belarusian team). Between 1996 – 2000 he cooperated with the Svoboda office in Minsk. He’s been cooperating with the Prague team of the Radio since 2000.